Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Feb 13 2024 07:28:03

FOUS30 KWBC 130727
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 13 2024 - 12Z Wed Feb 14 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.=20=20
=20
Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 14 2024 - 12Z Thu Feb 15 2024

....A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OREGON & NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...

Portions of coastal OR and northwest CA...=20
As a cyclone in the Pacific swings north a bit astride of the
Pacific Northwest coastline, low-level inflow of up to 50 kts out
of the south to southwest and precipitable water values of 0.75-1"
impact portions of southwest OR as well as west-central and
northwest CA.  With time, small bubbles of 250 J/kg of MU CAPE
(per 00z NAM forecasts) are expected to move near the region.=20
QPF-wise, since this time yesterday, the non-NAM and non-Canadian
Regional guidance has trended upward in amounts.  Given the above,
hourly rain totals of 0.5"+ are more probable, and the 00z HREF
now shows a 40%+ chance of occurring by 15/00z, which would be of
most concern in burn scars.  This led to a new Marginal Risk area
for the region.

Roth


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6lQPss9R6IDCvFRzm382S3eDBQ3RwNmXoDM_ZqlwK9ts=
5m-N-ECI3y0MoXyZSCkRoGXYnAWAy63yqf8G13G6zWzf1-I$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6lQPss9R6IDCvFRzm382S3eDBQ3RwNmXoDM_ZqlwK9ts=
5m-N-ECI3y0MoXyZSCkRoGXYnAWAy63yqf8G13G6Zv9B7l4$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6lQPss9R6IDCvFRzm382S3eDBQ3RwNmXoDM_ZqlwK9ts=
5m-N-ECI3y0MoXyZSCkRoGXYnAWAy63yqf8G13G61MXOrJk$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.