Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Feb 13 2024 00:56:50

ACUS01 KWNS 130056
SWODY1
SPC AC 130055

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
TN/NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE IN TEXT

....SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible,
primarily across the coastal Carolinas overnight.

....01Z Update...

....Eastern TN/Northeast GA through the Carolinas...
A strongly forced, shallow convective line continues to push
eastward across eastern TN and western GA, forced by strong ascent
attendant to the eastward-moving shortwave currently over the
Mid-South. This line is forecast to continue eastward this evening
and overnight, moving across Carolinas and offshore by early
Tuesday. Buoyancy ahead of the line will remain limited, but a few
convectively augmented gusts are still possible across this region
this evening and overnight

Current surface observation place the 60 deg F dewpoints over
southern GA. There is some potential for this better low-level
moisture to advect northward into the coastal portions of the
Carolinas, augmented by some advection off the Atlantic as well.
This could help foster modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching
convective line, contributing to a greater chance for deeper
updrafts and near-surface-based storms capable of a few damaging
gusts and maybe even a brief tornado.

...Mosier.. 02/13/2024

$$

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