Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Feb 12 2024 19:49:51 ACUS01 KWNS 121949 SWODY1 SPC AC 121947 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida. The upper trough will continue to move east/northeast toward the Carolinas through tonight, with gradual deepening along with the surface low. The primary mitigating factor to severe potential through tomorrow morning will continue to be limited instability, as shear will be strong with this system. As of 20Z, widespread rain persists from GA into SC, with the more appreciable SBCAPE from far southern GA into northern FL. Meanwhile, weak instability was developing from AL into TN, where rapid cooling aloft will occur later today, along with low-level drying as winds veer. The greatest chance of a few severe storms appears to be from northern FL into southern GA coincident with the plume of instability. More isolated activity cannot be ruled out beneath the vorticity maximum as it moves across Middle and eastern TN as well, though that area is more conditional. In all cases, strong shear could support a supercell or two, with tornado or damaging wind risk. ...Jewell.. 02/12/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ....Southeast through tonight... A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .