Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Feb 12 2024 13:00:19 ACUS01 KWNS 121300 SWODY1 SPC AC 121258 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Southeast, including parts of Alabama and north Florida into Georgia and South Carolina. Damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible. ....Southeast States/Carolinas... A southern-stream shortwave trough near the ArkLaTex early this morning will reach the Tennessee Valley by evening and the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States late tonight. This system will minor and become more compact, with very strong mid/high-level southwesterly winds (70-100 kt) partially overspreading a convectively muddled warm sector across the Southeast. A surface cyclone will steadily deepen across the Tennessee Valley today and toward the southern Appalachians/mid-Atlantic tonight. This might influence some northward advancement of a boundary across Georgia today, although relatively widespread precipitation/outflows should effectively define the practical warm sector and today's related surface-based severe risk, as plentiful convection is ongoing early today across southern/eastern Alabama into central/northern Georgia and much of South Carolina. Some northward/inland warm-sector development may more so occur tonight across parts of the Carolinas. Increasingly robust deep-layer shear and ample low-level shear will support organized storm modes, with the most focused potential for diurnally intensifying storms expected to be across northern Florida/southeast Alabama into Georgia today in vicinity of augmenting convective outflows. Modest destabilization and aforementioned shear characteristics will support some embedded supercells as well as bowing segments, capable of damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes, and possibly some hail as well. Pending the evolution of upstream convection and the extent of northward destabilization, some severe risk may develop into parts of the Carolinas tonight, mainly for coastal areas. Robust deep-layer/low-level shear could yield some severe risk even with minimal destabilization. ...Guyer/Kerr.. 02/12/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .