Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Feb 12 2024 07:27:09 FOUS30 KWBC 120727 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 226 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 Day 1 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 12 2024 - 12Z Tue Feb 13 2024 ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S....=20 =20 There is a continuing threat of excessive rainfall on Monday from Alabama into the Carolinas as secondary cyclogenesis begins under the base of the cold air damming while the initial cyclone fades as it moves into WV on the west side of the cold air dam. Warm air advection east of the incoming cold front brings instability up to an outflow boundary/possible segment of the polar front and leads to heavy rainfall over saturated/saturating ground across portions of AL and GA before shifting east-northeast with time.=20 Precipitable water values increase to values at or slightly above 1.75", and MU CAPE of 500-1500 J/kg resides near and south of the boundary. Low-level inflow/effective bulk shear should be more than sufficient for organized convection, both in training bands and possible mesocyclones. Low- to mid-level frontogenesis will aid the heavy rain threat as well. Hourly rain totals up to 2" are possible, particularly early on across portions of SC and GA.=20 Local amounts of 5" are possible. The threat areas are based on presumptions of what the soil saturation could look like at 12z along with where the heaviest rain is expected to fall, so there is more than the usual uncertainty in the flash flood/excessive rainfall threat across eastern GA, SC, and vicinity. Threat areas have been expanded westward through western GA and AL from continuity to account for the above. Areas across the Carolinas and southern VA show better continuity. Roth Day 2 The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 3 The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9QL6c06PnYHuSNtXS8ZHG25TyGqfNjMpqfSbXL5XjaBe= LLP2OAoU8S79Y2aOXUcen7dOKxnugjcL41yterWuS_9Nar0$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9QL6c06PnYHuSNtXS8ZHG25TyGqfNjMpqfSbXL5XjaBe= LLP2OAoU8S79Y2aOXUcen7dOKxnugjcL41yterWunDPGsGs$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9QL6c06PnYHuSNtXS8ZHG25TyGqfNjMpqfSbXL5XjaBe= LLP2OAoU8S79Y2aOXUcen7dOKxnugjcL41yterWuMugYWyg$=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .