Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Feb 12 2024 07:05:15 AWUS01 KWNH 120705 FFGMPD SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-121303- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0059 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 204 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 Areas affected...central Gulf Coast into the Southeast Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 120703Z - 121303Z Summary...Heavy rainfall related to thunderstorms increasing in coverage across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Southeast could lead to hourly rain totals to 2" with local amounts to 4". This would lead to isolated to widely scattered flash flooding. Discussion...Widespread rain with embedded scattered showers and thunderstorms cover portions of LA, MS, AL, and GA within a broad baroclinic leaf pattern noted on recent water vapor imagery. This is occurring near and ahead of a surface low and its attendant frontal boundaries, with instability noted on either side of the slow-moving cold front in LA on SPC mesoanalyses. Inflow at 850 hPa is out of the southwest at 30-40 kts, importing 500-2000 J/kg of MU CAPE into the region. Precipitable water values of 1.4-1.7" lie here per recent GPS data. Cell coverage has been most numerous generally poleward of the 4C isotherm at 700 hPa, while activity has been more widely scattered/isolated in warmer areas closer to the Gulf Coast thus far. Across portions of south-central LA, there has been enough convective coverage for short bouts of cell training overnight. With the main upper low near the eastern OK/TX border moving eastward, temperatures aloft (700 hPa) will cool which should allow cell coverage to increase closer to the Gulf Coast across southeast LA, southern MS, and portions of southern AL. The entire heavy rain area is expected to settle slowly southeast with time. The main heavy rain threats appear to be due to short bouts of cell training as well as near and ahead of embedded mesocyclones. As the cold front isn't expected to pick up the pace to the east until sunrise, this could allow for increased bouts of cell training in more southern areas across LA, MS, and AL beyond 10z. Broad warm advection will continue east of the surface low, with heavy rainfall falling across increasingly saturated ground across south-central MS, central AL, and central GA. Hourly rain totals to 2" with local amounts to 4" are possible, which is explicitly forecast in the mesoscale guidance across portions of AL and GA and theoretically possible farther southwest, given the ingredients available. This is expected to lead to isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding.=20 Roth ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8nZyS4yYEQdlhsjvY6jMyyy7MooF1onsbcFnzSJCEjLNRz7AhhdrSXC-iNzhFnreANaU= Ey_cti8jCooHO9gGPiWZhx0$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...FFC...GSP...HUN...JAN...LCH...LIX... MOB...TAE... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 34248628 34148271 33648148 31998448 30738680=20 28988913 28839084 29379166 31559054 33488842=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .