Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Feb 12 2024 05:57:16 ACUS01 KWNS 120557 SWODY1 SPC AC 120555 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ....Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ...Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .