Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0131
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 11 2024 19:56:08

ACUS11 KWNS 111956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111955=20
MSZ000-112130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0131
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

Areas affected...Portions of central MS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 19...

Valid 111955Z - 112130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 19
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated hail/wind threat may persist with
thunderstorms north of a front this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Convection north of a front across central MS has
struggled to intensify this afternoon, while also acquiring more
linear characteristics over the past hour or so. Even though this
small cluster may remain slightly elevated, its close proximity to
the warm front and gradual/filtered daytime heating occurring
downstream suggests that strong to locally damaging winds may still
occur with the stronger downdrafts. Deep-layer shear of 50-55 kt is
also very supportive of continued thunderstorm organization.
Isolated severe hail remains possible in the short term with any
supercell that can develop within or ahead of the ongoing line. This
activity should persist into AL, but with weaker MUCAPE in place
with eastward extent, a gradual weakening trend is anticipated later
this afternoon north of the front.

...Gleason.. 02/11/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-pCMyZtAPrXZR3B85fduor6uveeTpmb-j1M6PVesn2P2mM5QHsoXHeCBDtB55HzjaaBdym4pP=
H2rhu4n2wyP0RIKzaA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33698996 33758900 33668841 33028854 32858970 32689024
            33329035 33698996=20


=3D =3D =3D
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