Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Feb 11 2024 15:11:27 AWUS01 KWNH 111511 FFGMPD MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-112110- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0056 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1011 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 Areas affected...northern Louisiana, southeastern Arkansas, portions of northern and central Mississippi Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 111510Z - 112110Z Summary...A conditional, isolated flash flood threat is evolving across the discussion area as an organized convective complex enters northwestern Louisiana. Wet soils from prior runoff and brief, heavy downpours could promote excessive runoff in a few areas. Discussion...Much of the outlined discussion area has experienced 2-4 inches of rainfall over the past 24 hours, resulting in wet soils and very low FFG thresholds generally along an axis from near Lake Providence, LA to Columbus, MS. Meanwhile, an organized MCS was approaching the Texas/Louisiana border near Shreveport, and additional showers were persisting within a warm-advection regime from central Louisiana to near Jackson, MS. The ongoing precipitation was located just south of the axes of wettest soils/lowest FFGs, although with showers/storms gradually moving northeastward toward the areas of wet soils, current thinking is that an isolated flash flood threat should begin to emerge in the next couple of hours. The overall magnitude of flash flood risk is in question, however. The convective complex near the Shreveport area is already outperforming several high-res models -- likely due to the well organized nature of the MCS and associated cold pool dynamics.=20 With the surface warm front across central LA (and attendant SB/MUCAPE axis) expected to lift northward, some concern exists that at least isolated heavier rainfall (exceeding 0.5 inch/hr rates) will spread northward into the wetter areas containing lowered FFGs. Areas of 0.5-2 inch rainfall totals are expected with this activity for as long as convection holds together - especially near and north of the I-20 corridor. Flash flood potential is expected to increase over time. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!434i6gUd1wK-PHvWmshfns17c_K8UzQo-52iEj5TGQ6BmVAqnYlViBIbYnbH5iqLVmSS= 3mr6uKtvH9b_v1yuvyUeIjU$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 34488923 34138830 32968839 31919051 31679325=20 32239399 32899354 33339302 33819171=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .