Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0121 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Feb 11 2024 07:27:30 ACUS11 KWNS 110727 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110726=20 TXZ000-110930- Mesoscale Discussion 0121 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Areas affected...central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15... Valid 110726Z - 110930Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15 continues. SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms will continue to spread east-northeastward toward the Interstate 35 corridor of north central and central Texas through 3-5 AM CST. This activity may continue to pose some risk for severe hail and gusty winds, mainly near/north of the Junction through Austin vicinities. DISCUSSION...Stronger flow around the 500 mb level is still nosing into areas near/north of the Texas Big Bend. But a more modest preceding speed maximum, which likely has provided support for the evolving ongoing cluster of storms, is forecast to continue propagating north-northeastward across central Texas through 09-11Z. The associated convection likely will remain rooted within lift associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, above cold surface-based air now nosing south-southeast of the Texas South Plains. North of the Junction/Kerrville/Austin/College Station vicinities, a more modestly cool and stable near-surface layer is not likely to modify much in advance of the convection. However, elevated instability and cloud-bearing layer shear may remain sufficient to continue supporting some risk for severe hail and gusty winds, particularly near the southern flank of the convective system passing near/north of the Junction and Austin vicinities.=20 Farther south, where mid/upper forcing for ascent becomes more negligible, warmer and more strongly capping mid-level air is forecast to inhibit convective development. ...Kerr.. 02/11/2024 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!84ClGIhJPHWaZk0ZCkxTwFzBgAUOMMl8p85RBT_PhK2mWq9q0l30gC8Q6xWl9P6CrFaUF154H= BjMd2eO_iZi93wbwog$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31429922 32429854 32119668 30629761 29989967 30610013 31429922=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .