Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 11 2024 00:43:29

ACUS01 KWNS 110043
SWODY1
SPC AC 110041

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and perhaps
a tornado or two are expected to increase in areal coverage across
Texas later tonight.

....01z Update...

Leading edge of large-scale ascent appears to be spreading across
eastern NM and far west TX into the TX south Plains. Latest
water-vapor imagery suggests the center of an evolving upper low is
located over southwest NM. This feature is advancing east in line
with latest model guidance.

Isolated thunderstorms persist within the warm advection zone, along
the cool side of the boundary, from central TX into northern LA.
This activity has struggled to strengthen appreciably and these
trends may persist much of the night. However, robust convection is
expected to evolve across west TX later this evening as the
aforementioned forcing interacts with the western plume of
moisture/buoyancy. 00z sounding from MAF exhibits very steep lapse
rates through 5km, but is also quite dry. Moisture should gradually
spread into this steeper lapse-rate region over the next several
hours and severe thunderstorms are expected to develop, most likely
after 03-04z. Very large hail remains the primary risk with
supercells that evolve. This activity will spread toward the I35
corridor late tonight.

...Darrow.. 02/11/2024

$$

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