Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Feb 10 2024 19:59:56 ACUS01 KWNS 101959 SWODY1 SPC AC 101958 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL TX... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a tornado or two are expected from Texas to Mississippi through this evening, and especially across central Texas overnight. ....20Z Update... Minor changes to the general thunderstorm areas based on observations. The remainder of the outlook is unchanged. For more short-term information on central Texas see MCD #117. ...Wendt.. 02/10/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ....Central TX to the lower MS Valley through tonight... Within the subtropical jet, embedded speed maxima will eject east-northeastward today from TX to the Mid-South/TN Valley, while the primary upstream trough moves from AZ this morning to west TX by early Sunday. A weak surface wave (associated with the ejecting speed maxima) will move east-northeastward along a stalled front into east central TX this afternoon and the Mid-South tonight. Some convection is ongoing north of San Antonio to the immediate cool side of the front - storms may persist through the day in the warm advection zone north of the boundary, and additional storms should form this afternoon along the surface front. A mix of clusters/supercells will be capable of producing occasional large hail north of the front, and hail/wind along the boundary. An isolated tornado may also occur with surface-based storms along the front. Later tonight, additional storm development is expected across central TX as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the primary shortwave trough from NM/west TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km), MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor clusters of supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated wind damage. Much of this convection will be elevated, but the southern-most storms along the surface front may also pose some threat for an isolated tornado. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .