Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Feb 10 2024 17:26:27 ACUS02 KWNS 101726 SWODY2 SPC AC 101724 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND PARTS OF WESTERN ALABAMA... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Texas into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity on Sunday. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are all possible. ....Synopsis... A positively tilted trough within the Southwest will shift eastward through the day Sunday. While some intensification of this feature is expected with time, this will occur very late in the period towards Monday morning. At the surface, a moist airmass will be present across southeast Texas into parts of the Southeast. Surface dewpoints are currently in the low/mid 60s F within these regions and this should be maintained as a modest surface low moves northeast toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity by Monday morning. ....Southeast Texas into Louisiana/Mississippi/western Alabama... Some convection may be ongoing early in the period within parts of eastern Texas close to the upper-level trough and cold front. Some weaker activity is also possible along the slowly lifting warm front in Louisiana/Mississippi. Though cloud cover will be present in the warm sector, some broken areas of heating are possible with MLCAPE reaching around 1000 J/kg in some locations. Weak forcing for ascent should mean storm initiation will hold off until the afternoon. The most likely area for storm initiation will be in southeastern Texas with lesser certainty farther east along the surface boundary. Steep mid-level lapse rates and effective shear values of 50-60 kts will allow storms to organize into a mix of supercells and line segments. Large hail and damaging winds will generally be the most likely hazards. Low-level wind fields are not expected to be overly strong given the muted surface response to the trough. However, some increase in 850 mb winds will occur during the evening in parts of central/southern Mississippi which could leave a brief window for locally greater tornado potential between 00-03Z. North of the surface boundary, storms will be elevated, but long hodographs and sufficient buoyancy will still allow for isolated large hail potential. Weaker mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy with eastward extent should keep the severe threat more marginal into eastern Alabama/far western Georgia. ...Wendt.. 02/10/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .