Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Feb 10 2024 13:00:53 ACUS01 KWNS 101300 SWODY1 SPC AC 101259 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and some tornado threat are expected especially across parts of Texas this afternoon and tonight, with other severe storms possible toward the Lower Mississippi Valley on a more isolated basis. ....Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... A prominent upper trough over the Southwest Deserts early today will continue northeastward over the southern Rockies as it takes on an increasingly positive tilt through tonight. Semi-phased polar/tropical jets will generally result in strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds across much of the southern tier of the CONUS, as these winds will largely overlie and be parallel to a frontal zone extending from west/south Texas northeastward to the Lower Mississippi Valley. Convection will be common along/north of this frontal zone for much of the period, but a gradual increase in thunderstorms and intensity are expected across the middle part of Texas into mid/late afternoon through early evening, with an additional round of thunderstorm intensification expected late tonight across the Edwards Plateau vicinity. Strong deep-layer shear, highlighted by very long/semi-straight hodographs in the cloud-bearing layer, will support supercells, some of which could produce very large hail on a localized basis, especially with this evening's storms. Some damaging wind/tornado risk may also exist with storms occurring in closer proximity to the front, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong. Farther east, other more isolated/episodic severe storms will be possible as far east as the Lower Mississippi Valley in vicinity of the effective front, with severe storms most probable across this region this evening into the overnight as frontal wave development occurs across the region and southwesterly 1-3km AGL winds strengthen. This could include at least some potential for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. ...Guyer/Kerr.. 02/10/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .