Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Feb 10 2024 08:30:30 FOUS30 KWBC 100830 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 329 AM EST Sat Feb 10 2024 Day 1 Valid 12Z Sat Feb 10 2024 - 12Z Sun Feb 11 2024 ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S... Convection capable of producing heavy rainfall will develop today from portions of the Gulf Coast that spreads east/northeast with time as large scale ascent increases ahead of a vigorous upper makes its way out of the southern Rockies. Between enhanced flow of Gulf moisture and increasingly diflent flow aloft...the model QPF of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts over 4 inches seem to be reasonable along a quasi-stationary front extending across the region. With more CAMs becoming available, made a few minor adjustments to the previously issued ERO but the overall forecast reasoning has changed little. Bann Day 2 Valid 12Z Sun Feb 11 2024 - 12Z Mon Feb 12 2024 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK AREA OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SUNDAY... Guidance continue to depict an areal footprint of QPF across the Gulf states and into the Southeast U.S. during this period as one shortwave scoots eastward early in the period and cyclogenesis occurs vigorous shortwave trough continues to head towards the north/northeast followed by deep layered cyclogenesis over the southern Plains and southern Mississippi Valley. This reinvigorates the on-shore flow of Gulf moisture and results in the flow aloft becoming increasingly difluent. While there is some overlap with a northwest to southeast stripe in Alabama where 14-day rainfall amounts of a couple inches was observed...the axis of heaviest rain should generally be over areas that have had little or no rainfall recently. With WPC deterministic QPF generally below 2 inches...felt a Marginal risk area still adequately covers the risk of excessive rainfall. Bann Day 3 The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7zT9EVr-y6y2tW2qFRE1gMcbAjk7n7GJ99h1IgtD2j7U= nWAtvzh-8r_z-8Ls430wKHUo4dP18BkShUcUJJnoPftP77A$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7zT9EVr-y6y2tW2qFRE1gMcbAjk7n7GJ99h1IgtD2j7U= nWAtvzh-8r_z-8Ls430wKHUo4dP18BkShUcUJJno0jYFBno$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7zT9EVr-y6y2tW2qFRE1gMcbAjk7n7GJ99h1IgtD2j7U= nWAtvzh-8r_z-8Ls430wKHUo4dP18BkShUcUJJnotPTwFow$=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .