Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 10 2024 00:48:18

ACUS01 KWNS 100048
SWODY1
SPC AC 100046

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight from the
ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley.

....01z Update...

Earlier thoughts (20z outlook), regarding the potential for a few
strong/severe thunderstorms, continue.

A weak, deamplifying short-wave trough is ejecting east-northeast
across KS early this evening. This feature will advance into the
upper Midwest as an 80-90kt 500mb speed max translates into northern
IN/OH after midnight. As the short wave moves downstream, LLJ will
be drawn into the TN/OH Valley region. This should encourage deep
convection to spread across AR toward the lower OH Valley in
response to low-level warm advection.

One lone supercell has produced up to 2.5" hail over Garland County
AR, and this storm is now shifting into the Little Rock area where
some hail threat may linger. 00z sounding from LZK exhibited steep
3-6km lapse rates with MUCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, albeit with
strong surface-6km bulk shear. Even so, weakening short wave, and
the transitory nature of the LLJ overnight, suggest the greatest
severe threat should remain too isolated for a SLGT risk.

Toward morning, a secondary LLJ will begin to develop over west TX
in response to a strong approaching upper trough. Convective threat
should also increase in response to this feature over the Edwards
Plateau, but this will not occur until the very end of the period.

...Darrow.. 02/10/2024

$$

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