Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Feb 09 2024 20:00:17 ACUS01 KWNS 092000 SWODY1 SPC AC 091958 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ....20Z Update... Only meaningful change with this update was to expand the Marginal Risk slightly eastward to include more of southern IN and central KY. Recent guidance suggests that a small bowing cluster may move eastward across the lower OH Valley late tonight into early Saturday morning while posing some threat for strong to locally damaging winds in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. Otherwise, cu is gradually deepening beneath a cirrus deck across parts of northeast TX. If thunderstorms can develop across this area later this afternoon, then they would pose a threat for mainly isolated severe hail. ...Gleason.. 02/09/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024/ ....Northeast TX to the lower OH Valley this afternoon into tonight... Within a larger-scale midlevel trough over the intermountain west, one shortwave trough will dig southward from WA/OR to the lower CO River Valley by early Saturday. Downstream, one embedded speed max will eject east-northeastward from OK/KS toward the Midwest, as another trough moves over northern Mexico and southern AZ/NM. Weak surface cyclogenesis will accompany the KS/OK speed max, followed by a reinforcing surge of cool air into OK/MO/AR overnight. South of this front, boundary-layer dewpoints have increased into the low-mid 60s from TX to AR, beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates. Surface heating will be limited to breaks in both the lower stratus and high-level cirrus plume, but MLCAPE is still expected to increase to 500-1000 J/kg in this corridor ahead of the reinforcing cold front late today into tonight. Relatively warm temperatures and saturated profiles near 400 mb (associated with the subtropical jet) will tend to limit the depth of buoyancy. However, low-midlevel buoyancy and hodograph length/low-level curvature will be sufficient for some threat of a low-topped supercell or two within a loose band of convection this afternoon into tonight from northeast TX/southeast OK toward the lower OH Valley. Isolated wind damage, large hail and a tornado will all be possible, though severe storm coverage is expected to remain rather isolated. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .