Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Feb 09 2024 19:45:17 FOUS30 KWBC 091945 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 244 PM EST Fri Feb 09 2024 Day 1 Valid 16Z Fri Feb 09 2024 - 12Z Sat Feb 10 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Campbell Day 2 Valid 12Z Sat Feb 10 2024 - 12Z Sun Feb 11 2024 ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S... 21Z update... The latest runs of hi-res guidance are showing thunderstorms tracking across central-eastern Texas over multiple hours with rainfall rates exceeding 0.50-1.00 inch/hr. Therefore the Marginal Risk area was expanded westward to cover the potential for excessive rainfall and local flash flooding concerns. The overall axis of QPF has remained similar to the previous forecast although there have been some increases. As such the Marginal Risk area was also extended further northeast across eastern Kentucky, western Virginia and into far southern West Virginia. The Slight Risk area was adjusted a little further into eastern Texas and north/northeast to the tri-border of Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia. Campbell Increasing large scale ascent across portions of the South and Southeast U.S. ahead of a vigorous upper trough will set the stage for increasing chances of heavy to possibly excessive rainfall from the the Gulf Coast region into parts of the Southeast U.S.. The latest guidance continue to depict an elongated axis of QPF, with areal averages of 1 to 3 inches, to form along the slow-moving/stalled surface front stretched across the Lower Mississippi Valley, South- and Southeast-US...with models favoring an axis from northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas and northern Mississippi. A few models suggested maximums of 3-4+ inches to focus over these locations. Given the latest trends for a west-east increase of areal coverage along the front, the northern periphery of the previously issued Slight Risk area was nudged just a bit farther northward. Beyond that...few changes were made. Bann Day 3 The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 2030Z. Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8RKET_9Q5CRWw_U_h98NeCV1s3M-MFc59zkp6CAOisRv= glTC7CEUnMp93wpc8XjnSQ8B_ZQoDF-kKGC080Pu98vGoN4$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8RKET_9Q5CRWw_U_h98NeCV1s3M-MFc59zkp6CAOisRv= glTC7CEUnMp93wpc8XjnSQ8B_ZQoDF-kKGC080PuMZJwSwo$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8RKET_9Q5CRWw_U_h98NeCV1s3M-MFc59zkp6CAOisRv= glTC7CEUnMp93wpc8XjnSQ8B_ZQoDF-kKGC080Pun058HxM$=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .