Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Feb 09 2024 17:31:46 ACUS02 KWNS 091731 SWODY2 SPC AC 091730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail, damaging winds, and a marginal tornado threat will be possible mainly Saturday afternoon/evening into early Sunday morning across parts of Texas. ....Texas... Within broad upper troughing over the western states, an embedded closed low over the Southwest should evolve into an open wave while ejecting over the southern High Plains Saturday night. A weak surface boundary will extend from parts of the lower OH Valley southwestward into the lower MS Valley and TX. This front should make only slow southward progress across the Mid-South/TN Valley and lower MS Valley through the day given mainly southwesterly flow aloft, while attempting to return slowly northward across parts of TX as weak cyclogenesis occurs ahead of the ejecting upper trough. Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Saturday morning across parts of central/east TX, but this convection should generally remain elevated with low severe risk. South of the boundary, generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present across TX. With modest daytime heating, some uptick in convective intensity may occur with any thunderstorms that can persist Saturday afternoon as weak boundary-layer instability develops along/south of the front. Isolated hail and damaging winds could occur across parts of central/east TX with this activity, as enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow supports strong deep-layer shear and updraft organization. A relatively greater severe threat may develop Saturday evening into early Sunday morning across parts of west-central TX as large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough moves over this region. Steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast to overspread modest low-level moisture, aiding the development of weak to moderate MUCAPE. 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear will easily support supercell structures with attendant large hail threat initial convective development. Some potential will exist for a fairly quick transition to more linear structures as a southerly low-level jet strengthens, with an isolated damaging wind/marginal tornado threat where this activity can remain surface based. The Marginal Risk has been expanded northward and westward in TX to account for latest guidance trends, and greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in supercells with a large hail threat occurring. ...Gleason.. 02/09/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .