Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 09 2024 16:30:45

ACUS01 KWNS 091630
SWODY1
SPC AC 091629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST TX TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur from the ArkLaTex region
into portions of the lower Ohio Valley mainly late this afternoon
and tonight.

....Northeast TX to the lower OH Valley this afternoon into
tonight...
Within a larger-scale midlevel trough over the intermountain west,
one shortwave trough will dig southward from WA/OR to the lower CO
River Valley by early Saturday.  Downstream, one embedded speed max
will eject east-northeastward from OK/KS toward the Midwest, as
another trough moves over northern Mexico and southern AZ/NM.  Weak
surface cyclogenesis will accompany the KS/OK speed max, followed by
a reinforcing surge of cool air into OK/MO/AR overnight.  South of
this front, boundary-layer dewpoints have increased into the low-mid
60s from TX to AR, beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates.

Surface heating will be limited to breaks in both the lower stratus
and high-level cirrus plume, but MLCAPE is still expected to
increase to 500-1000 J/kg in this corridor ahead of the reinforcing
cold front late today into tonight.  Relatively warm temperatures
and saturated profiles near 400 mb (associated with the subtropical
jet) will tend to limit the depth of buoyancy.  However,
low-midlevel buoyancy and hodograph length/low-level curvature will
be sufficient for some threat of a low-topped supercell or two
within a loose band of convection this afternoon into tonight from
northeast TX/southeast OK toward the lower OH Valley.  Isolated wind
damage, large hail and a tornado will all be possible, though severe
storm coverage is expected to remain rather isolated.

...Thompson/Wendt.. 02/09/2024

$$

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