Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Feb 09 2024 13:00:45 ACUS01 KWNS 091300 SWODY1 SPC AC 091259 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ARKLATEX/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ....ArkLaTex/Southeast Oklahoma to Lower Ohio Valley... Embedded within broadly cyclonic southwesterly mid/high-level flow, a shortwave trough over the southern Rockies and south-central High Plains will continue northeastward as it deamplifies. Generally neutral height tendencies are expected atop a northeast/southwest-oriented composite frontal zone extending from the Midwest southwestward to the ArkLaTex/central Texas. Weak surface development is possible along portions of the front across the Ozarks toward the Lower Ohio Valley as the front becomes more eastward progressive later today and tonight. In the absence of any meaningful large-scale features affecting this region, it appears weak warm advection will be the primary mechanism, along with boundary-layer heating, for potential convective development later today. Gradual low-level moistening should continue across the warm sector through the period, with lower 60s F surface dewpoints developing a bit farther north prior to convective initiation. While forcing will remain weak, convective inhibition should weaken such that surface-based parcels should become buoyant by around 21-22z across southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within an air mass characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 500-700 J/kg. Forecast soundings exhibit strong deep-layer shear and profiles favor organized rotation, though low-level flow is not expected to be that strong due to the weak surface reflection along the advancing front. A few robust updrafts could evolve along a northeastward-expanding corridor from southeast Oklahoma/northeast Texas into western Kentucky/southern Illinois tonight. The most probable severe risk with this activity should be severe hail, although a few surface-rooted storms could also materialize and pose a damaging wind risk this evening. ...Guyer/Kerr.. 02/09/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .