Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 09 2024 09:57:43

ACUS48 KWNS 090957
SWOD48
SPC AC 090956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Monday/Day 4...
An upper-level low is forecast to move across the lower Ohio Valley
on Monday, as an associated surface low moves into the southern
Appalachian Mountains. A cold front is forecast to be positioned in
the central Gulf Coast states at 12Z on Monday, with a line of
strong thunderstorms likely ongoing near and ahead of the front.
This line is forecast to move eastward through Georgia and the
Florida Panhandle during the morning, reaching the southern Atlantic
Seaboard by late afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer
shear and large-scale ascent will be strong in the vicinity of the
line. This, combined with sufficient instability and strong
low-level shear should support an isolated tornado threat. Wind
damage also will be possible along the stronger parts of the line.
The severe threat is expected to decrease from west to east during
the afternoon as the line moves toward the Atlantic coast, with the
line moving offshore by early evening.

....Tuesday/Day 5 to Friday/Day 8...
Zonal flow is forecast to develop at mid-levels across the eastern
half of the U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday, with flow becoming more
northwesterly on Thursday and Friday. In response at the surface,
multiple high pressure systems are forecast to move across the
central and eastern U.S. Dry and cold conditions associated with the
high pressure systems will be unfavorable for thunderstorm
development across most of the continental U.S. during the mid to
late week timeframe.

...Broyles.. 02/09/2024

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