Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Feb 09 2024 08:30:54 ACUS03 KWNS 090830 SWODY3 SPC AC 090829 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ....SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected to develop on Sunday from east Texas extending eastward across Louisiana into southern and central Mississippi, and far southwest Alabama. Damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail and tornadoes will be possible. ....East Texas/Louisiana/Southern and Central Mississippi/Far Southwest Alabama... An upper-level low, and an associated 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet, will move into the southern Plains on Sunday. At the surface, a low will translate eastward across north Texas during the day. The moist sector will likely be located from east Texas extending eastward to the central Gulf Coast states, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the lower to mid 60s F. The low-level moisture combined with warming surface temperatures will result in weak destabilization over much of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast region. Thunderstorms may be ongoing in east Texas at the start of the period near the western edge of the moist sector. As a complex of convection organizes and intensifies, a severe threat is expected to develop across far east Texas and western Louisiana during the mid to late morning. The severe threat should persist into the afternoon, as a cluster of strong to severe storms moves across Louisiana and south-central Mississippi. During the afternoon, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range across the western part of the moist sector in the Sabine River Valley. Forecast soundings in the Sabine River Valley have 0-6 km shear in the 65 to 75 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This will likely support an isolated large hail threat with supercells that develop. Further east from central Louisiana into south-central Mississippi, low-level shear is forecast to increase during the mid to late afternoon as a low-level jet moves across the region. Forecast soundings increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity to near 300 m2/s2 by late afternoon. This will likely support a tornado threat within the eastward moving cluster, mainly with the more organized discrete rotating storms. The stronger cells within this eastward moving cluster should have a wind-damage threat, associated with supercells and short intense line segments. ...Broyles.. 02/09/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .