Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 09 2024 08:19:39

FOUS30 KWBC 090819
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
318 AM EST Fri Feb 09 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 09 2024 - 12Z Sat Feb 10 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann



Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 10 2024 - 12Z Sun Feb 11 2024

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S...

Increasing large scale ascent across portions of the South and
Southeast U.S. ahead of a vigourous upper trough will set the
stage for increasing chances of heavy to possibly excessive
rainfall from the the Gulf Coast region into parts of the
Southeast U.S.. The latest guidance continue to depict an
elongated axis of QPF, with areal averages of 1 to 3 inches, to
form along the slow-moving/stalled surface front stretched across
the Lower Mississippi Valley, South- and Southeast-US...with
models favoring an axis from northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas
and northern Mississippi. A few models suggested maximums of 3-4+
inches to focus over these locations. Given the latest trends for
a west-east increase of areal coverage along the front, the
northern periphery of the previously issued Slight Risk area was
nudged just a bit farther northward.  Beyond that...few changes
were made.

Bann

Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-kfeRQWYjDi6Pka_KzYynfS0XZNLkbelNPvbNuwELwVE=
PXdal6SIH-LDp8Eg0DN0LJm4YlW1n8LuVPPRKC2cuRyre5A$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-kfeRQWYjDi6Pka_KzYynfS0XZNLkbelNPvbNuwELwVE=
PXdal6SIH-LDp8Eg0DN0LJm4YlW1n8LuVPPRKC2cei-AoNI$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-kfeRQWYjDi6Pka_KzYynfS0XZNLkbelNPvbNuwELwVE=
PXdal6SIH-LDp8Eg0DN0LJm4YlW1n8LuVPPRKC2cRZLCQEk$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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