Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 09 2024 06:48:40

ACUS02 KWNS 090648
SWODY2
SPC AC 090646

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with isolated damaging wind gusts, hail
and a marginal tornado threat, will be possible on Saturday across
parts of south-central and southeast Texas.

....South-central and Southeast Texas...
An upper-level low will move across the Desert Southwest on
Saturday, as an associated 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet moves through
a trough in northwestern Mexico. Ahead of the system, mid-level flow
will remain southwesterly across the southern Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
advance southeastward into south-central and southeast Texas.
Surface heating and low-level convergence near the front will likely
lead to scattered thunderstorm development during the day on
Saturday. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F to the southeast of the
front is forecast to contribute to weak destabilization, with MLCAPE
generally peaking between 500 and 1000 J/kg by afternoon. This,
combined with 0-6 km shear forecast in the 60 to 70 knot range
(evident on forecast soundings), should be sufficient for an
isolated severe threat. Marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado will be possible across south-central and southeast
Texas. The hail threat should be concentrated a bit further west
over the southern Texas Hill Country where mid-level lapse rates are
forecast to be steeper. Two negative factors on Saturday include the
weak destabilization and a poorly timed shortwave, which is forecast
to move away from the region on Saturday. For these reasons, any
severe threat over south-central and southeast Texas is expected to
remain marginal.

...Broyles.. 02/09/2024

$$

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