Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Feb 09 2024 05:45:10 ACUS01 KWNS 090545 SWODY1 SPC AC 090543 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ....SUMMARY... A few strong, to potentially severe, thunderstorms are possible from the Arkansas region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley. Hail is the greatest concern with this activity. ....Northeast TX to Lower MS Valley... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave trough over the Four Corners region moving northeast in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to eject across the southern Rockies and deamplify over KS as 500mb speed max translates into the mid MS Valley. This evolution will result in weak/negligible height changes over the MRGL risk region, though strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will be noted through the period. At the surface, a very weak surface low will track along a surface front that will be draped across this region. In the absence of any meaningful large-scale features affecting this region, it appears weak warm advection will be the primary mechanism, along with boundary-layer heating, for potential convective development. Surface dew points have risen into the lower 60s across the Coastal Plain of TX into extreme southern AR. Gradual moistening should continue across the warm sector through the period, and lower 60s should advance a bit farther north prior to convective initiation. While forcing will remain weak, CINH should weaken such that surface-based parcels should become buoyant by 21-22z across southeast OK/northeast TX into southwest AR. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within an air mass characterized by SBCAPE on the order of 700 J/kg. Forecast soundings exhibit strong deep-layer shear and profiles favor organized rotation, though low-level flow is not expected to be that strong due to the aforementioned weak surface reflection along the advancing front. A few robust updrafts could evolve along a corridor from northeast TX into western KY. The greatest risk with this activity should be hail, especially if a few supercells evolve. ...Darrow/Bentley.. 02/09/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .