Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 09 2024 00:53:41

ACUS01 KWNS 090053
SWODY1
SPC AC 090052

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2024

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening
across parts of southeast Wisconsin, northern Illinois, and the
southern Lake Michigan vicinity.

....01z Update...

Strong 500mb speed max is translating northeast across IL toward
northern IN in association with a midlevel short-wave trough that is
currently located over the upper MS Valley. This feature appears to
be influencing strong/severe convection over the upper Midwest,
especially across southern WI/northern IL. Very steep lapse rates
are noted north of the jet, due in large part to very cold 500mb
temperatures, and some boundary-layer heating. While surface dew
points have held in the mid-upper 40s, surface-based parcels have
proven buoyant, and several supercells evolved within the
aforementioned corridor of strong convection. Latest radar data
suggests the strongest convection will soon spread across southern
Lake MI where buoyancy is weaker. This should lead to weaker
updrafts over the next few hours and the prospect for severe should
wane with eastward progression this evening.

...Darrow.. 02/09/2024

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.