Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Feb 08 2024 17:30:37 ACUS02 KWNS 081730 SWODY2 SPC AC 081728 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe potential currently appears rather uncertain Friday into Friday night, but trends will be closely monitored from parts of eastern Oklahoma through the mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley. ....Synopsis and Discussion... With positive-tilt mid/upper-level troughing persisting over much of the central/eastern CONUS on Friday, the primary feature of interest for convective potential will be a compact shortwave trough ejecting across the southern/central Plains through the day, and over the mid MS and OH Valleys late Friday into early Saturday morning. An occluded surface low is forecast to advance northeastward across Ontario through the period, while a separate, weak surface low attendant to the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough develops from the central High Plains to the Midwest. Weak thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning along/near a remnant surface boundary across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley in a modest low-level warm advection regime. Additional convective development ahead of the shortwave trough and associated surface low/cold front will likely be delayed until Friday evening at the earliest, with residual capping and MLCIN generally inhibiting thunderstorm initiation. Still, at least isolated thunderstorms may eventually form over parts of eastern OK and the Ozarks, and spread east-northeastward across parts of the mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley Friday night. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated across these regions ahead of the east-southeastward moving cold front, but there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with how much boundary-layer instability will be realized, and whether thunderstorms will remain elevated or become surface based. The 12Z NAM is notably more aggressive than most other guidance in depicting greater low-level moisture and related instability across MO/AR eastward into the lower OH Valley late Friday into early Saturday morning. Given strong deep-layer shear and adequate low-level shear forecast, any surface-based thunderstorms that can develop and persist would conditionally support a severe risk. But, this potential still appears highly uncertain and conditional, with a better chance that convection remains slightly elevated above a near-surface stable layer. Have therefore opted to not include any low severe probabilities at this time, while expanding the general thunderstorm area northward to account for a larger zone of possible thunderstorm development. ...Gleason.. 02/08/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .