Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 08 2024 12:52:06

ACUS01 KWNS 081251
SWODY1
SPC AC 081250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through
early evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, northern Illinois,
far southern Wisconsin, and the southern Lake Michigan vicinity.

....Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley/Lake Michigan vicinity...
Steady height falls will occur preceding the eastward advancement of
an upper trough currently across the northern/central Great Plains,
with this trough reaching the Upper Great Lakes/northern Ontario
tonight. Strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds (80+ kt 500
mb) will overspread much of the Midwest/Lake Michigan vicinity. A
surface low will progress northeastward across northern Minnesota
toward northern Ontario, as a cold front sweeps eastward across the
Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Some pre-frontal moistening is
expected today, but overall limited moisture quality should preclude
a greater and more certain severe risk.

Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop, at least on an
isolated basis, by mid/late afternoon initially across eastern Iowa
and Wisconsin/northwest Illinois near the front, within a zone of
modest destabilization (below 500 J/kg MLCAPE) but minimal
inhibition. While low-level moisture will be rather limited, with
surface dewpoints should generally no higher than 50 F around peak
heating, the steepness of lapse rates (-25C around 500mb) could
support some severe-caliber surface-based low-topped storms (tops
generally 25,000 ft or below), with strong wind profiles/low-level
hodograph curvature supportive of rotating storms.

Hail and locally damaging winds will be possible, along with some
tornado risk. Storms should persist, and potentially remain
strong/locally severe, northeastward toward the southern Lake
Michigan vicinity through early/mid-evening, before nocturnal
boundary layer/cool lake influences lead to a diminishing convective
intensity by late evening.

...Guyer/Leitman.. 02/08/2024

$$

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