Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 08 2024 09:57:03

ACUS48 KWNS 080956
SWOD48
SPC AC 080955

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Models are in good enough agreement for Sunday/D4, depicting a
progressive shortwave trough moving from the southern Plains into
the lower MS Valley. This system will maintain a positive-tilt
overall, but is forecast to deepen. Gradual height falls will
overspread the Gulf Coast region on Sunday/D4, as low pressure moves
from eastern TX across LA and MS, turning northward into TN by 12Z
Monday/D5.

A more favorable warm sector will be in place by this time, with
widespread mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of a developing cold front.
This should contribute to around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE from southeast TX
across southern LA, with lesser values farther east.

Given the trajectory of the low and position of the most favorable
air mass, the greatest chance of severe storms looks to be from
eastern TX across southern LA, beginning early over TX and pushing
toward MS by 12Z Monday/D5. Wind fields will favor both damaging
wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes assuming dewpoints trending
higher/mid to upper 60s F. However, there is some concern about warm
sector quality given the possibility of precipitation prior to the
low/cold front arrival.

Beyond this range, predictability decreases due to both the
widespread nature of antecedent rain forecast across the broadening
warm sector and warm advection zone, and resulting minimal
instability. Severe potential may still exist on Monday/D5, and will
be addressed in later outlooks as predictability increases.

...Jewell.. 02/08/2024

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