Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 08 2024 08:10:31

ACUS03 KWNS 080810
SWODY3
SPC AC 080809

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are most likely on Saturday from the
southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
Weak shortwave ridging will occur over the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday
as a leading wave moves into the Northeast, with a broad belt of
southwesterlies aloft extending into the southern Plains. Meanwhile,
a large positive-tilt upper trough will move across the Rockies,
with the primary vorticity maximum moving across NM and into western
TX and OK through Sunday morning.

At the surface, a weak boundary will extend from the OH Valley into
TX Saturday morning, drifting slowly southward with the air of
rain-cooled air from ongoing activity focused from central TX into
northern MS/AL. This activity is not expected to be severe, given
modest moisture levels with lower 60 F dewpoints and front-parallel
winds aloft. Pockets of heating ahead of this daytime activity could
result in locally stronger storms.

To the west, a surface trough will develop over western TX late,
with a cold front pushing east toward I-35 into Sunday morning as
the upper jet noses toward the Red River. At that time, the more
robust low-level moisture is forecast to be well south of the area
of strongest ascent along the TX Coast. However, focused ascent
along the cold front and near the low could provide a focus for
storms beginning around 06Z over northwest TX.

Forecast soundings around that time depict a mostly stable boundary
layer, with elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg and lengthy
hodographs. Given the overnight timing and late moisture return,
severe is not currently forecast though small hail would appear to
be the primary concern given such cold midlevel temperatures.

...Jewell.. 02/08/2024

$$

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