Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Feb 08 2024 08:11:48 FOUS30 KWBC 080811 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 310 AM EST Thu Feb 08 2024 Day 1 Valid 12Z Thu Feb 08 2024 - 12Z Fri Feb 09 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Kleebauer Day 2 Valid 12Z Fri Feb 09 2024 - 12Z Sat Feb 10 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Kleebauer Day 3 Valid 12Z Sat Feb 10 2024 - 12Z Sun Feb 11 2024 ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S... Increasing large scale ascent across the Southeastern U.S will transpire Saturday ahead of a vigorous upper trough entering the Southern Plains along with a steady stream of mid-level vorticity advecting northeast out of Mexico to enhance the convective regime building over the south. Return flow on the western edge of a broad ridge pattern over the Caribbean will meet a convergent pattern upstream as a slow moving cold front bleeds southeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent Mississippi Delta, allowing for a widespread area of rainfall with embedded convection to develop in-of of the aforementioned areas. Forecasts have trended to favor a heavier stripe of precip centered from East Texas through the ArkLaMiss into northern Alabama, coincident with the increasing convergence signature along the path of the cold front. MUCAPE footprint off current guidance is sufficient for areal convective coverage beginning Saturday AM thanks to increasing difluence ahead of the deep, upper trough to the west, as well as passing shortwaves rippling out of the sub-tropical jet that will be sneaking into the Gulf Coast area due to the amplifying upper level pattern. PWAT anomalies of 1.5-2 deviations above normal are anticipated throughout much of the southeast with an extension north towards TN. A general 2-3" is already being depicted across major deterministic with the ensemble means also increasing as the pattern for convection becomes recognized. A Slight Risk was added across the far east TX through the northern stretch of LA/MS/AL. The previous inherited Marginal Risk was expanded in all directions with the tail end as far southwest as the I-35 corridor in TX, and as far northeast as the southwestern edge of VA. Kleebauer Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_eNbNUB0fEzeOPkmmQST76rSMHEGu8QmSdECMQ1bSn9e= v-GpvXdzRxoOZfOaT6XWuttI6V1P6h2AMQNQwroA-Qhi5o8$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_eNbNUB0fEzeOPkmmQST76rSMHEGu8QmSdECMQ1bSn9e= v-GpvXdzRxoOZfOaT6XWuttI6V1P6h2AMQNQwroABynltY0$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_eNbNUB0fEzeOPkmmQST76rSMHEGu8QmSdECMQ1bSn9e= v-GpvXdzRxoOZfOaT6XWuttI6V1P6h2AMQNQwroA54a0Vsw$=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .