Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 07 2024 19:58:29

ACUS01 KWNS 071958
SWODY1
SPC AC 071956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight.

....20Z Update...
Minor changes have been made to the prior outlook based on
observational trends. Meager moisture/buoyancy present across
northeastern CO into western NE should limit the threat for severe
thunderstorms, though occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible.

...Gleason.. 02/07/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024/

....Discussion...
A progressive upper flow pattern across the U.S. is forecast to
amplify with time, as a short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward
across Texas and New Mexico and into the Plains through tonight,
while a second trough/low just off the Pacific Northwest Coast digs
south-southeastward across California.  The overall effect of this
evolution will be a broadening of the overall cyclonic flow field,
expanding to encompass essentially the entire western and central
U.S. by tomorrow morning.  Upstream from this feature, stout ridging
will gradually shift across the eastern half of the country.

At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the eastern
Wyoming/western South Dakota/Nebraska Panhandle region today, as the
initial cyclonic perturbation aloft shifts northeastward.  Within
the evolving warm sector, showers and a few low-topped thunderstorms
are expected to develop by late this afternoon.  With that said,
meager instability is anticipated, with surface dewpoints across the
central and southern Plains only in the upper 30s to low 40s, and
little impetus for any appreciable low-level theta-e increase.
While the background flow field would otherwise support organized
storms -- and indeed a stronger wind gust or small hail may occur
with one or two of the more robust updrafts -- the lack of a more
favorable thermodynamic environment argues against introduction of
even low-probabilities/MRGL risk at this time.

Elsewhere, severe storms are not expected through the period.

$$

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