Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 07 2024 13:01:55

ACUS01 KWNS 071301
SWODY1
SPC AC 071300

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight.

....Great Plains including Nebraska/Kansas...
The lead portion of an upper-level trough over the Southwest
Deserts/Baja vicinity will eject northeastward and reach the High
Plains by evening, with strengthening southwesterly mid/high-level
flow. Limited moisture ahead of a deepening surface cyclone and dual
fronts will likely limit severe-convective potential, although
isolated thunderstorms may develop across the central High Plains by
early evening as forcing for ascent increases into the region.

While boundary layer moisture and overall buoyancy will remain
limited, it appears that a couple of stronger storms could occur
across near the northeastward-developing surface low/triple point
vicinity early this evening, potentially including some hail, while
also including the potential for gusty winds near the triple point
southward along the advancing cold front across Kansas. These
thermodynamic scenarios currently appear too limited for severe
probabilities, but observational trends/short-term guidance will be
reevaluated today.

...Guyer/Leitman.. 02/07/2024

$$

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