Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 07 2024 00:51:23

ACUS01 KWNS 070051
SWODY1
SPC AC 070049

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
tonight.

....01Z Update...

...Southwest...
Convection most productive with regard to lightning has been focused
within a narrow band, along a zone of stronger cooling (including
temperatures falling below -24 C around 500 mb) associated with
mid-level forcing for ascent and cold advection, now overspreading
the lower Colorado Valley.  Destabilization has probably been
supported by modest low-level moisture return from the Gulf of
California, and appears sufficient to maintain weak thunderstorm
activity into the overnight hours, where substantive forcing for
ascent is maintained.  Model output is suggestive that this may tend
to become focused along the Mogollon Rim by late evening, but it
appears the Greater Phoenix area will probably be impacted as well,
with diminishing risk for lightning north of the Mogollon Rim and
into southeastern Arizona.

Otherwise, widely scattered deepening convective cells have
supported some recent increase in lightning across parts of the San
Joaquin Valley.  Additional development may still be possible along
the western slopes of the Coastal Ranges north of Santa Barbara,
before the loss of daytime heating contributes to boundary-layer
stabilization early this evening.  Thereafter, model output is
suggestive that scattered weak thunderstorm activity remains
possible overnight, mainly south of the LA Basin into the San Diego
area, aided by forcing for ascent and further cooling aloft,
associated with the approach of another weak cyclonic vorticity
center.

...Kerr.. 02/07/2024

$$

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