Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Feb 06 2024 19:56:49 ACUS01 KWNS 061956 SWODY1 SPC AC 061955 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ....20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. Weakly rotating showers are ongoing near San Diego CA, with around 100 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH present per latest VWP from KNKX. Poor lapse rates aloft and weak MUCAPE should continue to limit updraft strength and intensity this afternoon. Still, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible from parts of CA into the Lower CO River Valley and AZ through tonight as an upper trough continues eastward. ...Gleason.. 02/06/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024/ ....Discussion... Progressive upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today, as a trough continues to exit eastern NOAM into the western Atlantic. Upstream, a second trough near the West Coast this morning will gradually shift eastward toward the Great Basin/Desert Southwest, in tandem with downstream eastward advance of stout ridging over the central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, a Pacific cold front will shift eastward across the Southwest through the period, ahead of the advancing upper system. Later this afternoon, daytime heating beneath mid-level cooling/steepening lapse rates will promote weak/low-topped destabilization in the vicinity of the Lower Colorado Valley. Scattered to isolated convective development thus remains apparent. While the kinematic environment -- well within the parameter space supportive of organized convection and thus severe potential -- is noted, the weak/low-topped nature of the anticipated CAPE across this region should limit updraft intensity, and any associated hail/wind risk. As such, have again opted against introduction of a risk area. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .