Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Feb 06 2024 17:29:50

ACUS02 KWNS 061729
SWODY2
SPC AC 061728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough is forecast to eject from the Southwest across the
southern/central Rockies and into the Plains on Wednesday. Even with
low-level moisture expected to remain limited, cold temperatures
aloft associated with the upper trough may support sufficient
elevated instability for some convection. This thunderstorm
potential should remain focused across parts of southern CA early in
the day, and over portions of the Southwest and southern/central
Rockies through Wednesday night. Orographic lift should aid in
convective development across these regions, but weak instability is
expected to preclude an organized severe threat.

Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains
through Wednesday evening as the upper trough ejects eastward. Due
to prior frontal intrusions into the Gulf of Mexico, low-level
moisture return will likely remain quite meager with northward and
westward extent across the Plains. While thunderstorm potential
remains uncertain, some guidance shows the potential for weak
instability to develop by late Wednesday afternoon along/east of a
surface lee/cold front trough over the southern/central High Plains.
Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer
could support occasional strong/gusty winds with any convection that
develops across eastern CO and the OK/TX Panhandles, and
subsequently spreads east-northeastward through Wednesday evening,
even if it produces little lightning. Even so, the potential for
severe-caliber winds still appears low given the limited forecast
instability.

...Gleason.. 02/06/2024

$$

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