Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Feb 06 2024 16:30:50

ACUS01 KWNS 061630
SWODY1
SPC AC 061628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

....Discussion...
Progressive upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today,
as a trough continues to exit eastern NOAM into the western
Atlantic.  Upstream, a second trough near the West Coast this
morning will gradually shift eastward toward the Great Basin/Desert
Southwest, in tandem with downstream eastward advance of stout
ridging over the central CONUS.

At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Rockies.
Meanwhile, a Pacific cold front will shift eastward across the
Southwest through the period, ahead of the advancing upper system.

Later this afternoon, daytime heating beneath mid-level
cooling/steepening lapse rates will promote weak/low-topped
destabilization in the vicinity of the Lower Colorado Valley.
Scattered to isolated convective development thus remains apparent.
While the kinematic environment -- well within the parameter space
supportive of organized convection and thus severe potential -- is
noted, the weak/low-topped nature of the anticipated CAPE across
this region should limit updraft intensity, and any associated
hail/wind risk.  As such, have again opted against introduction of a
risk area.

...Goss/Thornton.. 02/06/2024

$$

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