Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Feb 06 2024 09:18:45

ACUS48 KWNS 060918
SWOD48
SPC AC 060917

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

....DISCUSSION...
From Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models are in good agreement in
bringing a large, positive-tilt upper trough eastward across the
West and toward the central CONUS, with a persistent southwesterly
flow regime across much of the East. Given this regime, a gradual
increase in moisture and the development of weak instability is
forecast across parts of the Gulf Coast region, with increasing rain
and thunderstorm chances from eastern TX to the Carolinas on
Saturday/D5.

While predictability is low Sunday/D6 and beyond, the aforementioned
upper trough may eventually amplify, and a wave may eventually move
across the Southeast. Instability will be the limiting factor for
severe potential, especially given the possibility of widespread
clouds and rain. However, the area from the northern Gulf Coast to
the southeastern Atlantic Coastal states is an area of interest
going forward. If a trough amplification does not occur, the
prolonged low-level warm advection regime with modest height falls
may only result in marginal severe potential.

...Jewell.. 02/06/2024

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