Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Feb 06 2024 05:55:16

ACUS02 KWNS 060555
SWODY2
SPC AC 060553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday.

....Synopsis...
A large upper trough will remain over the West on Wednesday, with an
intense shortwave moving from northern Mexico into the southern
Plains. Behind this lead wave, low heights with cold temperatures
aloft will remain over the West Coast as a backside wave pushes
south along the coast.

Preceding the Plains wave, low pressure will develop over the
central and northern Plains, with increasing southerly winds at the
surface. However, given the prominent surface ridge over the East,
poor moisture return is forecast. Indeed, little to no instability
is forecast to develop over the central High Plains in the
synoptically favored area, though weak elevated instability cannot
be ruled out. Overall, the threat of thunderstorms across the warm
sector is very low.

A greater chance of scattered thunderstorms will occur beneath the
cold air aloft and mainly confined to the Four Corners states, and
perhaps near the Coastal Range in southern CA. Favored areas for
diurnal development will be along the Mogollon Rim and perhaps over
the higher terrain of northern NM. While sporadic lightning flashes
cannot be ruled out over parts of the central Plains, chances appear
less than 10% at this time.

...Jewell.. 02/06/2024

$$

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