Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Feb 06 2024 05:16:44 ACUS01 KWNS 060516 SWODY1 SPC AC 060515 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., today through tonight. ....Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific into western Atlantic is forecast to remain strong and amplified, but perhaps continue to become a bit more progressive through this period. Within this regime, models suggest that a significant surface cyclone, now developing northeast of the Bahamas, may deepen further, before occluding, with secondary surface cyclogenesis proceeding east-northeastward across the western Atlantic. Upstream, mid-level ridging likely will shift from the lee of the Rockies across and east of the Mississippi Valley today through tonight, as trailing large-scale mid-level troughing accelerates northeastward, inland of coastal southern California and Baja California through much of the Southwest and northwestern Mexico by early Wednesday. As a surface low associated with the latter feature migrates northeast of the southern Sierra Nevada into the northern intermountain region, a trailing cold front will advance across the Great Basin and Southwest into the southern Rockies, preceded by gradually deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Rockies. While this probably will be accompanied by a strengthening southerly return flow across southern portions of the high plains into the middle Missouri Valley, the low-level environment across much of the western Gulf Basin into Rio Grande Valley is initially dry, with little appreciable modification forecast through this period. ....Southwest... An ongoing influx of low/mid-level moisture off the Pacific, coupled with cooling aloft, may contribute to layers of weak destabilization across much California, and across the Great Basin into the Rockies today through tonight. However, latest model output continues to suggest that the evolution of thermodynamic profiles most conducive to lightning may remain confined to the post-cold frontal regime, beneath the inland spreading mid-level cold core. Generally, it appears that appreciable probabilities for thunderstorm activity may begin to develop near southern California and adjacent northern Baja coastal areas around midday, on the leading edge of stronger cooling (roughly -22 to -24 C at 500 mb) associated with mid-level forcing for ascent and cold advection. As this spreads inland, additional thunderstorm development appears probable across the lower Colorado Valley by late afternoon, and the Mogollon Rim vicinity/lower deserts of central Arizona by late evening. While forecast soundings, particularly across portions of Arizona, suggest that vertical shear profiles might become conditionally supportive of supercell structures, thermodynamic profiles do not appear conducive to an appreciable risk for severe weather. However, small hail and gusty winds could accompany a few of the stronger storms. ....Florida... Beneath a relatively cold mid-level environment, the risk for thunderstorm activity today into tonight appears likely to remain confined to areas offshore of the Atlantic coast, associated with boundary-layer destabilization focused near the Gulf Stream. ...Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/06/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .