Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Feb 06 2024 00:50:45 ACUS01 KWNS 060050 SWODY1 SPC AC 060049 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ....01Z Update... ....Florida... Weak thunderstorm activity may persist another hour or two inland of coastal areas, near and east/southeast of Tampa. This appears focused beneath the mid-level cold core near a lingering mid/upper low center, within larger-scale mid-level troughing still digging across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida vicinity. Models continue to suggest that this troughing will begin to redevelop east of the Florida peninsula overnight, as more notable surface cyclogenesis commences north-northeast of the northern Bahamas. This will be accompanied by further low-level cooling and drying across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida Keys and southern peninsula. However, it does appear that scattered thunderstorm development may persist and perhaps increase a bit overnight offshore of Atlantic coastal areas, as the boundary-layer, particularly near the Gulf Stream, moistens and destabilizes beneath the cold air aloft. ....Northern Intermountain Region/Great Basin into California... Based on satellite and radar imagery, large-scale forcing for ascent appears to be contributing to increasing/deepening convective development, beneath the mid-level thermal trough, where insolation has contributed to weak destabilization. Some of this activity may continue to become capable of producing lightning, at least into early evening, before this potential begins to diminish with the loss of daytime heating. ...Kerr.. 02/06/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .