Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 05 2024 16:26:41

ACUS01 KWNS 051626
SWODY1
SPC AC 051624

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe weather threat has diminished across Florida, with additional
risk not expected there, or over the remainder of the country.

....Discussion...
A positively tilted upper trough -- extending from near the Pacific
Northwest Coast southwestward across the eastern Pacific -- will
make gradual eastward progress today.  Upstream, ridging will
prevail over the central CONUS.  Still further upstream, two upper
lows will continue to affect the eastern U.S. through the period.
The first -- lingering over the northwestern Atlantic southeast of
the Canadian Maritimes -- will result in persistence of cyclonic
northwesterly flow aloft across New England.  The second low of
interest is one that has drifted south into the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico.  This low is forecast to take a southeastward and then
eastward turn with time, shifting into Florida late today, and then
across the Peninsula tonight.

At the surface, low pressure over the eastern Gulf is forecast to
redevelop off eastern coast of Florida near the Bahamas by this
evening.  Currently, vigorous convection that was affecting the Keys
and southern portions of the Peninsula has shifted east, with
northerly low-level winds now over southern Florida in the wake of
this convection and the associated outflow boundary.

While weak instability lingers off the western Florida coast at this
time, dewpoints are now in the 50s inland, and thus an accordingly
stable airmass is indicated.  As such, potential for any stronger
convection inland has diminished substantially, and will gradually
end entirely as the surface low redevelops off the eastern coast.
As such, the MRGL risk is being removed at this time, with severe
storms not expected across Florida, or the rest of the U.S., for the
remainder of the period.

...Goss/Thornton.. 02/05/2024

$$

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