Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 05 2024 09:58:39

ACUS48 KWNS 050958
SWOD48
SPC AC 050956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Latest guidance trends suggest the persistence of a longwave trough
in the mean from south-central Canada to the Southwest States into
this weekend. A broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies will
likely remain prevalent across the South-Central to Southeast
States. This should overlap with the gradually enriching moist
sector over the Gulf, yielding conditionally favorable severe
potential centered on the western Gulf Coast States to the Deep
South starting around D5.

A parade of shortwave impulses appears probable, digging from the
Pacific Northwest into the Southwest before ejecting east. However,
poor run-to-run continuity with large ensemble spread remains
evident with the evolution of individual impulses. General trends
with the latest 00Z cycle in deterministic guidance have been for a
more suppressed northern extent of the Gulf moist sector and
prominent cyclogenesis delayed until around D8.

...Grams.. 02/05/2024

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