Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 05 2024 08:27:08

ACUS03 KWNS 050827
SWODY3
SPC AC 050825

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday.

....Synopsis...
A series of shortwave impulses, embedded within and ahead of the
broader longwave trough in the West, will eject east-northeast
across the Southwest and into the Great Plains. The more northern of
these impulses should amplify over the Dakotas by 12Z Thursday. This
should induce moderate cyclogenesis with the surface low tracking
from the central High Plains towards the southeast SD vicinity.

....Southwest to Great Plains...
Isolated thunderstorm development should initially focus near the
higher terrain of the Four Corners States, as surface heating and
500-mb temperatures of -22 to -26 C yield scant buoyancy. Across the
Great Plains, surface dew points should be limited to the low to mid
40s by late afternoon, as modified moisture return ensues along the
TX Gulf Coast. Still, mid-level height falls and pronounced
boundary-layer heating should aid in high-based/low-topped
convection developing over parts of the central to southern High
Plains. While SBCAPE will probably only reach 50-250 J/kg, very
isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Given favorable background
lower-level flow, convection-aided strong surface gusts within a
dry-microburst environment are possible. This high-based convection
should become elevated with eastern extent after sunset, and appears
more likely to persist into Wednesday night across parts of NE/SD.

...Grams.. 02/05/2024

$$

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