Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Feb 05 2024 08:03:39 FOUS30 KWBC 050803 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 303 AM EST Mon Feb 05 2024 Day 1 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 05 2024 - 12Z Tue Feb 06 2024 ....THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... A persistent plume of elevated low to mid-level moisture will remain almost stationary across southern CA with flow orthogonal to the terrain in-of the Transverse Range within San Barbara/Ventura counties, as well as the Peninsula Range within Los Angeles/San Bernardino counties as the plume shifts slightly eastward on Monday. Rates within the heaviest bands of rainfall will reach between 0.5-1"/hr with average rates still running up near 0.25"/hr for several hours. Totals across the region have already breached 2" over an expansive area from the central CA coast down into southern LA county with embedded totals exceeding 4" now a common occurrence over the most consistent waves of heavy precip over Santa Barbara and Ventura counties. This has already triggered multiple flash flood warnings across the area with copious flooding reports popping up over the population centers along the coastal plain. Given the incessant nature of the precip over the complex terrain north of the coast and the urbanization factors within the zone being impacted, there will be a continued higher risk for flooding potential through the course of Monday. Storm totals over 6" will be common over a large portion of Southern California with local 8-10" amounts nestled within the eastern half of the Transverse Range north of Santa Barbara. Intensity of rainfall will wind down the back half of the forecast period, but the persistence over Los Angeles/Orange counties will maintain a high-end threat through the entirety of D1. This setup is a textbook case for widespread flooding that will induce road closures and affect travel prospects across a densely populated area of the CONUS. A High Risk was maintained across Southern California with lower risk areas extending well inland and further north along the coastal plain. Kleebauer Day 2 The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 3 The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-ASq_GYeuZ7WZxanbsxcmFjLrTL_TKiH4aquEq2wtDXE= We9n3viYXEWYvxLUvgjSCpLXK2GlSEmpfwSiLjepM79pUIs$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-ASq_GYeuZ7WZxanbsxcmFjLrTL_TKiH4aquEq2wtDXE= We9n3viYXEWYvxLUvgjSCpLXK2GlSEmpfwSiLjeprZCeJXA$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-ASq_GYeuZ7WZxanbsxcmFjLrTL_TKiH4aquEq2wtDXE= We9n3viYXEWYvxLUvgjSCpLXK2GlSEmpfwSiLjepnXWiddQ$=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .