Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Feb 05 2024 05:23:08 ACUS01 KWNS 050523 SWODY1 SPC AC 050521 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS... ....SUMMARY... A few strong storms may impact parts of the Florida Keys into southeastern peninsula coastal areas today, including one or two which may pose a risk for a tornado across parts of the Greater Miami area around mid day. ....Synopsis... Models indicate that the persistent, blocking mid/upper high over the Upper Midwest will become increasingly suppressed during this period. As this occurs, it appears that flow will become a bit more progressive across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific into western Atlantic, though it may undergo some further amplification today through tonight. This probably will include building mid-level ridging across and east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau vicinity, downstream of slowly eastward accelerating mid-level troughing (including progression farther inland across California). Downstream of the ridging, mid-level troughing (with at least an initially more consolidated embedded mid-level low digging into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico) is forecast to progress across Florida, the Caribbean and Bahamas through early Tuesday. It appears that this will be accompanied by significant surface cyclogenesis to the northeast of the Bahamas during the latter half of this period. ....Southern Florida... Models indicate that an initial area of low pressure may begin to take shape over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (offshore of the central/southern Florida peninsula) by 12Z this morning, before overspreading southern Florida by late afternoon. In the wake of a couple of preceding short wave perturbations on the leading edge of the cyclonic mid/upper flow, potentially cool air associated with substantive lower-tropospheric drying precedes the developing low, and probably will maintain a stabilizing influence across much of the peninsula through the day. Across parts of the Keys into southeastern peninsula coastal areas, Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings do suggest that substantive boundary-layer destabilization is possible this morning into early afternoon. Beneath relatively cool mid-level temperatures, low-level moistening, including surface dew points increasing through the lower/mid 60s F, may become sufficient to contribute to CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg with daytime heating. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, and perhaps coinciding with enlarging, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs across the Greater Miami vicinity, the environment may become conducive to supercells potentially capable of producing a tornado for at least an hour or two late this morning or early afternoon. ...Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/05/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .