Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Feb 05 2024 00:55:05 ACUS01 KWNS 050055 SWODY1 SPC AC 050053 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... ....SUMMARY... An isolated strong thunderstorm, posing some risk for severe weather, remains possible inland of the San Francisco Bay area into early evening. There also appears low potential for a strong to severe storm near the lower Florida Keys by around 7 AM EDT. ....01Z Update... ....Southeast... Lingering strong thunderstorm development, beneath the mid-level cold pool associated with an elongated mid-level low slowly digging across the Gulf Coast region, seems likely to generally weaken during the next couple of hours with the loss of daytime heating. In response to at least a few perturbations pivoting around the cyclonic circulation, including one forecast to dig across the northwestern into central Gulf of Mexico, models suggest that the low may begin to consolidate near or south-southeast (roughly) of the Mobile Bay vicinity overnight. Associated forcing for ascent may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the eastern Gulf of Mexico overnight. Some of this activity may begin to spread into southwestern Florida and the lower Keys by daybreak Monday. Based on latest NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, the stabilizing influence of potentially cool air, associated with ongoing low-level drying, seems likely to minimize the risk for severe weather. However, the Rapid Refresh does suggest rapid modification of this air mass is possible across the lower Keys around Key West between 11-12Z. ....Southern Sacramento Valley Vicinity... Based on Rapid Refresh forecast soundings and objective analysis, the environment inland of the San Francisco Bay area, near the Sacramento vicinity, might still be conducive to isolated low-topped supercell development late this afternoon. However, as the deep offshore cyclone continues its northward migration, and begins to weaken, it appears that this potential may diminish by 02-03Z. ...Kerr.. 02/05/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .