Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Feb 04 2024 20:02:32 ACUS01 KWNS 042002 SWODY1 SPC AC 042000 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GA/NORTH FL...SOUTH FL...AND THE CENTRAL CA COAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible across parts of southwest Georgia and north Florida this afternoon, and south Florida and the Keys late tonight. A very limited risk for a brief/weak tornado is also evident near the central California Coast, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ....20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward into a larger portion of southwest GA and the northeast FL Panhandle, based on the progression of the surface warm front and presence of small but rotating cells moving northward across the region. See MCD 106 for more information. A portion of the Marginal Risk has been trimmed from south FL, but there remains some chance of a strong storm or two late tonight with isolated hail/wind potential across far south FL and the Keys. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly northward along the CA coast, based on observational and guidance trends regarding the areas most prone to low-topped convection within a strongly sheared environment. ...Dean.. 02/04/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ....Parts of FL... A band of strong/locally severe storms is crossing southeastern FL at this time, with one rotating storm now moving through the Miami area. This convection is advancing quickly northeastward, with the strongest storms to move offshore over the next half hour. As this occurs, severe risk will end in the short term. For additional details, please refer to SWOMCD #105. With severe risk to largely move off the coast in the very near term, will remove SLGT risk from this region. Later today, in the wake of the initial/ongoing convection, weak destabilization is expected -- aided by steepening lapse rates spreading across the Gulf and into Florida. Low-topped afternoon showers and isolated storms are expected to evolve from southern Georgia into northern Florida, where limited potential for marginal hail and a stronger gust or two could develop. Finally, convection developing over the Gulf south of Louisiana -- associated with a lobe of vorticity on the southern edge of the primary upper cyclone -- should continue to expand in coverage, and may reach coastal Florida and the Keys very late in the period. As such, will maintain low severe-weather probabilities across parts of southern Florida and the Keys to reflect this potential. ....Central CA coast... As a short-wave trough -- within the broader cyclonic circulation off the CA coast -- shifts northeastward toward the central coast today, an associated/well-developed surface low will also approach later today and tonight. As convection ahead of the low/cold front should moves onshore, little lightning is expected given very meager/low-topped buoyancy. Still, very strong deep-layer flow -- veering and increasing strongly with height ahead of the front -- will provide a highly favorable kinematic environment with respect to potential for rotating updrafts. The aforementioned lack of appreciable buoyancy should largely mitigate the potential for updrafts of sufficient depth/duration to realize to otherwise favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, but will maintain MRGL risk to reflect the very low/conditional potential for a brief tornado or strong wind gusts that could evolve as convection moves onshore later this afternoon/evening. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .