Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Feb 04 2024 16:30:33 ACUS01 KWNS 041630 SWODY1 SPC AC 041628 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST... ....SUMMARY... Local severe risk will continue across a small portion of southeastern FL, with low/additional risk possible across parts of FL later today/tonight. A very limited risk for a brief/weak tornado is also evident near the central California Coast, mainly this afternoon. ....Parts of FL... A band of strong/locally severe storms is crossing southeastern FL at this time, with one rotating storm now moving through the Miami area. This convection is advancing quickly northeastward, with the strongest storms to move offshore over the next half hour. As this occurs, severe risk will end in the short term. For additional details, please refer to SWOMCD #105. With severe risk to largely move off the coast in the very near term, will remove SLGT risk from this region. Later today, in the wake of the initial/ongoing convection, weak destabilization is expected -- aided by steepening lapse rates spreading across the Gulf and into Florida. Low-topped afternoon showers and isolated storms are expected to evolve from southern Georgia into northern Florida, where limited potential for marginal hail and a stronger gust or two could develop. Finally, convection developing over the Gulf south of Louisiana -- associated with a lobe of vorticity on the southern edge of the primary upper cyclone -- should continue to expand in coverage, and may reach coastal Florida and the Keys very late in the period. As such, will maintain low severe-weather probabilities across parts of southern Florida and the Keys to reflect this potential. ....Central CA coast... As a short-wave trough -- within the broader cyclonic circulation off the CA coast -- shifts northeastward toward the central coast today, an associated/well-developed surface low will also approach later today and tonight. As convection ahead of the low/cold front should moves onshore, little lightning is expected given very meager/low-topped buoyancy. Still, very strong deep-layer flow -- veering and increasing strongly with height ahead of the front -- will provide a highly favorable kinematic environment with respect to potential for rotating updrafts. The aforementioned lack of appreciable buoyancy should largely mitigate the potential for updrafts of sufficient depth/duration to realize to otherwise favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, but will maintain MRGL risk to reflect the very low/conditional potential for a brief tornado or strong wind gusts that could evolve as convection moves onshore later this afternoon/evening. ...Goss/Thornton.. 02/04/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .